IL-05: Predictions Open Thread

Voters in Illinois’ Fighting 5th are choosing the Democratic nominee to replace Rahm Emanuel tonight. We won’t be liveblogging the race tonight (sorry, liveblogging fans), but if you have any predictions, now’s the time to put it all on the table.

UPDATE (David) (9:40PM): With 80% of the vote counted, Mike Quigley has a pretty substantial 2,100 vote lead.

10:27PM: The AP calls it for Quigley. Congrats to the newest member of our caucus. (Okay, yeah, there is a general election, but check out how many total votes there were in the GOP primary.)

63 thoughts on “IL-05: Predictions Open Thread”

  2. I have very little to base this on, but my prediction is Feigenholtz.

    The bulk of my evidence is this:

    White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel has not publicly endorsed anyone in Tuesday’s special primary to replace him in the U.S. House, but a campaign sign for candidate Sara Feigenholtz appeared on the lawn of his Lakeview neighborhood home today.

    I think she and Quigley will share first and second place, respectively.  

  3. Of the major contenders, she is the best.  The only ones I certainly don’t want are the conservatives, Charlie Wheelan, who opposes EFCA, Capparelli, who is basically a Repub, and the machine candidate (I think that is Patrick O’Connor).

  5. Unfortunately, I don’t think he’s getting the nod from the party establishment. Maybe Rahm didn’t like the fact that his character in Wheelan’s latest ad kept cursing, even though it was only an accurate portrayal.

  6. I’m hoping for and expecting Feigenholtz to win.  She’s got Emily’s list, SEIU, Steelworkers, Autoworkers, Hynes, and Emanuel (kindof) all endorsing her.  She’s the only major woman, so she locks down a lot of the womans vote there, plus Emily’s list.  She’s the only Jewish candidate, and this district has a high Jewish population, and undecided Jews can might go with her on her name alone.  Plus she’s very liberal and gay friendly, well known, and from Lakeview, where a lot of active Democrats live, and she’s represented them for a long time so they know her.  

  8. On Five Thirty Eight, I called

    1. Fritchey–20-29%

    2. Quigley–18-26%

    3. Feigenholtz–15-29%

    4. Forys–5-14%

    5. O’Connor–5-12%

    6. Wheelan–3-7%

    7. Geoghegan–2-5%

    others

    8. Donatelli–2-5%

    9. Monteagudo–1-4%

    10. Caparrelli–0-2%

    11. Bryar–0-2%

    I’m a little nervous I didn’t give Feigenholtz enough credit.

  9. I think it’s gonna be Feigenholtz, followed by Fritchey and Quigley. And what the heck, I’ll slap on some numbers too.

    Feigenholtz–29%

    Fritchey–20%

    Quigley–19%

    O’Connor–9%

    Wheelan–8%

    The rest will be in low single-digits.

  10. I don’t see an opening for Wheelan. The 5th doesn’t mind conservative Democrats, but previous examples of the type haven’t been like Wheelan. Social conservatives might have an opening. UofC economists, not so much.

    My numbers out of thin air are:

    Feigenholtz: 21%

    Quigley: 18%

    Geoghegan: 16% – I figure that being outspoken tends to get you the hard-core progressive vote

    Fritchey: 15%

    Forys: 13% – the Polish vote nearly defeated Rahm first time round

    The rest to be split amongst the field.

  11. The winner gets more than 25 percent of the vote.

    I haven’t got the foggiest idea of who that will be, but I think it’ll be a “bigger” (relatively speaking) win than some folks are predicting. The DKos thread doesn’t seem to put anyone over 18 percent.

    Also, just for fun, I’m going to predict that more people vote in the Green Party primary than in the Republican primary. I’ve got no reason to say that, but I think it would be wonderful.

  13. a freind working on a undisclosed campaign in the race. Gonna stick by it and not even try for numbers beyond guessing the winner gets around 20 percent plus or minus 5.

    Feighenholtz

    Fritchey

    Quigley

    Gay-gun

    O’Connor

    Wheelan

    Crazy Mafia guy who talks about Nazi’s

    The Rest  

  15. adding the results from Chicago (164 of 486 precincts in) and the suburbs (20 of 92 precincts in) together:

    Quigley: 4,280

    Fritchey: 3,201

    Feigenholtz: 2,805

  16. Chicago (289 of 486 precincts in) + suburbs (40 of 92 precincts in):

    Quigley: 7,441

    Fritchey: 5,583

    Feigenholtz: 5,220

  17. Cook’s idiotic PDF election results it looks like Quigly is going to win this one. He’s at 23 percent with the nearest at 17 percent, 60 percent in. Looks like it’s opposite in the suburbs but not enough votes to swing it.  

  18. Found the suburb stuff, but can’t get the downtown stuff to load, says no votes in yet to report.

  19. Chicago: 327 of 486 precincts reporting

    Suburbs: 57 of 92 precincts reporting

    Quigley: 8,393

    Fritchey: 6,535

    Feigenholtz: 6,140

  21.    There’s a special state senate election in Pennsylvania to replace the late Jim Rhodes (Republican).  Democrat Lukach leads Republican Argall 1312 to 1094.  I outnerded you all.

  25. Not Quigley winning.  I suppose he was my preferred candidate between the top three.  But seriously, blogs donated over $200,000 to someone who ran a bad campaign (for the money he raised he could have done better).  We could have used that money to be putting away NH-Sen or MO-Sen early.  The time we say “we’re playing defense” we’re conceding we’re going to start losing seats.  I’d like to stay on the offense as long as possible and keep pushing Republicans back into the deepest and darkest corner of their history.  

  27. She’s an anti-immigration activist/Minute(wo)man type!!  Not that it really matters for this election specifically, but it’s like the GOP just can’t help themselves.  Even in races we have no real chance of winning, we’re at least pretty good at choosing candidates who on their face fit the district pretty well.  It seems like the Republican Party really is drinking the Rush cool-aide and moving even further to the right.

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